Why the Rosneft JV Alliances Matter

Rosneft has reached agreements to form separate JV alliances with three Global Competitor companies: ExxonMobil, ENI, and Statoil.

What Rosneft brings to these deals is simple, acreage. ExxonMobil gains access to large new wildcat exploration acreage in the Kara Sea and the Black Sea. ENI picks up interests in the Black Sea and the Barents Sea. Statoil enters blocks in the Russian sector of the Barents Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, and will jointly study two onshore blocks involving an undeveloped West Siberian field and shale oil acreage.

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North American Arctic Gas Takes a Hit

In past issues of On Point we have warned that North American Arctic gas supply prospects were at risk due to the rise in unconventional gas production. It should come as no surprise, therefore, that the Mackenzie Gas project partners have announced that they are suspending the project. The decision was due to a continued decline in market conditions and unacceptable commercial terms. ConocoPhillips plans to take a US$525 million write down on an after tax basis.

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Cost Watch 2011

This issue of Cost Watch reflects current estimates of inflation pressures in the oil and gas industry through the end of 2011. Results from September through December 2011 are subject to revision but key conclusions are not likely to change.

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Sinopec Joins CNOOC in Major North American Unconventional Resource Deal

A US$2.5 billion joint venture alliance between Devon Energy and Sinopec has been announced. Sinopec will acquire a 33.33% interest in Devon's acreage across five new venture plays. The alliance includes an estimated 1.2 million acres in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale, Niobrara, Oklahoma Mississippian play, Ohio Utica shale, and the Michigan Basin. The Niobrara, Mississippian and Utica shale acreage is liquids weighted. The Michigan and Tuscaloosa acreage includes both oil and gas. The distribution of total acreage contributed to the alliance by play is shown below.

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CNOOC Farms Into Nexen Deepwater Gulf of Mexico Prospects

Nexen Petroleum announced on 30 November 2011 that it has farmed out a 20% interest in three deepwater exploration prospects to CNOOC with possibly three others to follow with working interests ranging from 10% to 25%. Two of the prospects, Kakuna and Angel Fire, are located west and northwest of the Knotty Head discovery on Green Canyon Blocks 504 and 327, respectively. The third prospect is Cypress. Earlier this year Statoil farmed into a 27.5% interest in Kakuna.

The transaction reflects continuing pressures on independent producers to seek out partners in North America as well as a spreading NOC strategic effort to broaden their access to future growth asset opportunities.

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Kodiak Oil & Gas: Building Scale in the Bakken

In a US$590 million deal (including US$50 million in stock), Kodiak Oil & Gas has acquired an additional 50,000 net acres in the Bakken play. The company announced that, following this transaction, its Williston Basin land position will rise to 155,000 net acres.

This is the fourth acquisition tracked by GES that Kodiak has made in the Williston since late 2010. A total of 103,000 estimated net acres were acquired in these four deals at a combined cost of US$1 billion or US$9,908 per net acre. The two most recent deals (both made this year) included significant existing production.

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Sinopec Builds on its Brazilian Position

In a US$3.5 billion deal, Sinopec will acquire a 30% share in Galp Energia's Brazilian upstream assets. The transaction will give Sinopec a 3% working interest in the Lula (formerly Tupi) and Iara projects and the Iracema (Cernambi) discoveries in Brazil's pre-salt play. Sinopec will also acquire interests in three other Santos Basin deepwater blocks.

While the potential production from the assets is very large on a gross basis, the contribution to Sinopec's net boe output will be much more limited because of the small working interest the company acquires.

What is significant is that this transaction demonstrates (1) a continuing program within Sinopec of building its global new project asset base (the deal follows up on Sinopec's acquisition in late 2010 of a 40% share in Repsol's Brazilian assets) , (2) a focus on Brazil and deepwater as a future area of growth for the company, and (3) a signal that the Chinese NOCs will continue to move into direct competition with the GC and STIC peer groups for access to new growth assets outside China.

GAIL and Sinopec Deals Mark Continuing Shift in NOC & EEC Companies' Growth Strategies

The GAIL JV alliance with Carrizo and the Sinopec acquisition of Daylight Energy are part of a continuing process described in our recent study, Emerging Challenges to the Global Competitor Peer Group.

GAIL has paid US$63.7 million in up-front costs and committed to another US$31.4 million in carried costs to acquire 4,040 net acres in the Eagle Ford shale. While the GAIL deal is trivial in terms of the net acreage involved, the resulting per acre cost of US23,515 paid by GAIL places this deal is in the 95th percentile of a sample of 21 transactions in 2010 and 2011.

In a move to expand the role of Canada in its future growth, Sinopec just announced a C$2.2 billion deal to acquire Daylight Energy, a Canadian resource play company with operations. Previously Sinopec acquired ConocoPhillips' interest in Syncrude.

BHP Billiton Acquires Petrohawk Energy

In a US$15.1 billion deal, BHP Billiton will acquire Petrohawk Energy shares for US$12.1 billion and assume $3 billion in Petrohawk debt. This deal follows BHP's prior acquisition of Chesapeake's Fayetteville shale operations at a cost of US$4.75 billion. The combined effect of these two transactions is to establish North American unconventional gas as a key driver of future BHP Billiton growth.

With operations concentrated in the much coveted Eagle Ford and Haynesville plays, estimated net production of 950 Mmcfe/d, and proved reserves of 3.4 Tcfe, the transaction has been made at a per acre cost of US$15,100. This places the deal in the 80th percentile of a sample of 21 Eagle Ford deals made in 2010 and 2011 and roughly comparable to prior transaction values in the Haynesville.

Cost Watch March 2011

Annual Average & Year to Date Cost Results:

On a year over year basis, downside pressures abated as the market for drilling, services and equipment reached a tentative supply/demand balance. As a result, the cost series that we track stabilized at levels at or slightly below 2009. Revised data for November 2010 reduced the prior estimate of deflation in 2010 for drilling cost and increased the deflation estimate for oil and gas support activities slightly.

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